10 února 2010

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,


Souvlaki and Ouzo for everyone…. Take the “for sale” sign off the Acropolis and start dancing the Cirtaki while smashing plates Zorba the Greek style!
The EU is coming to Greece’s rescue…. Well sort of….

Late last night in the dying throws of the European session we had headlines hit the wires reporting the imminent bailout of Greece by the EU! Of course the EURUSD rallied on the back of this eventually tripping decent stops into 1.3825/30 trading to a high of 1.3840 roughly. Details were sketchy at best about the package and the plan other than the fact that where there is smoke there is indeed usually fire and in this case there may have been something more to Trichet’s early return from Australia other than kangaroo poisoning. In quick succession (within the hour) Germany was first to vehemently deny any involvement in planned bailouts and following that there was another round of speculation as to what this plan would look like. Will it be the ECB and member states solitarily helping the Greeks or would it be in combination with the IMF? Would there be hurdles and targets set for the struggling nation akin to the recent Latvian debacle? How much money is needed? Etc etc etc. Long story short the EURUSD gave back all its gains and traded promptly in Asia to an overnight low of 1.3735. We walk in this morning not really all that clearer for what is going to happen but I do see that the EURUSD is range bound within 1.3730 and 1.3820/40 until such time as there is more light shed on this topic.

On a side note worth mentioning that outside of the obvious moral hazard problem this whole situation raises, it’s necessary to consider this little fact…. As soon as they’re done helping Greece Spain is clearly next in line and the problem there is far greater, so where does all the money come from and in what form? All in all in my humble view not all is rosy when said and done for the EUR at present. In simple terms whatever the solution its now likely to be seen as EUR negative in the medium term…..

Looking a little further a field at what else has been going on while you were sleeping;

China releases a far smaller trade surplus overnight than expected, risk falls off…. Very, very sketchy market at present and clearly the above is the main story that the market is currently watching.

Otherwise on the day we have despite the snow in Washington, Fed testimony without our man Ben as well as the BOE inflation report later this morning. Neither is likely to really move markets as most is priced in and as already mentioned 10 times above the headline story still continues to be Greece.

On the majors today, well you’ve seen what I think of the EURUSD, elsewhere Cable is likely to squeeze on a buy the rumor sell the fact scenario ahead of the inflation report. I look for more downside perhaps to test into 1.5550/70 today. USDJPY still needs to have rallies faded but overall don’t waste your time for now as this thing is sideways at best. USDCAD in my mind continues to be a sell on rallies but I look for a possible extension of current price action into 1.0830 before we finally commence a proper move lower.

Oh and did I mention that Greek public servants are on strike today after all the nonsense concerning their pensions etc were announced yesterday?
Yeah that country is well on its way forward…..

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

09 února 2010

9/2 Ekonomický komentár "Kúp, predaj, podrž"

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

Americke akcie ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie v negativnom teritoriu. Bolo to podporene nedoverou investorov v schopnost Grecka si poradit so svojimi problemami aj bez vonkajsej pomoci. Rizikove premie na dlhopisoch Spanielska a Portugalska rastu tiez. Investori na akciovych trhoch veria, ze situacia okolo tychto krajin by mohla negativne posobit na ekonomicke ozivenie vo svete.

- Tieto spravy maju negativny vplyv hlavne na financny sektor: JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America, American Express boli medzi spolocnostami, ktore poklesli najviac. Neistota sa spaja s rychlostou, s akou je mozno poskytnut pomoc a hlbkou problemov.

- Home Depot a Google vzrastli na zaklade zlepsenia vyhladu pre tieto spolocnosti investicnymi domami.

- Hovori sa, ze spolocnost Sprint Nextel Corp. by mohla kupit spolocnost MetroPCS Communications Inc., kedze konkurencny boj v segmente low-price mobilnych operatov sa v USA sa vyrazne stupnuje.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakupy po poklesoch ku 5455 s cielom na 5500. Stop pod 5440.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup okolo urovne 5070 s cielom na 5100. Stop pod 5056.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni urovne 1064 s cielom na 1069. Stop pod 1061.

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): Abertis Infraest., Allianz, Bayer, Carrefour, Delhaize group, Deutsche Telekom, E.ON, EDF, Enel, ENI, BAT, BP, BT Group, Experian, International Po., Randgold Resourc., Schroders (Non voting), Severn Trent, Tesco.

- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Accor, Anheuser-Busch I., Banca Monte Dei., Finmeccanica, Fortis, Fortum, Groupe Bruxelles, Inditex, ING Groep, Antofagasta, Barclays, BG Group, Capita Group, Compass Group, G4S Plc, ICAP, Intertek Group, Kingfisher, Legal & General.

Vyhlad na zlato v priebehu 2010 by mohol byt na 870 USD/uncu s narastom do 2014 ku 1500 USD/uncu.

- Hlavny dovod bude posilnujuci sa USD.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je neutralny. Pravdepodobne sa bude obchodovat v pasme 1060-1070 USD/uncu. V pripade prelomenia urovne 1075 predpokladame posun na 1085 USD/uncu.

Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje pri 15.16 pre znovuotestovanie urovne 14.65 USD/uncu. Stop nad 15.37.

Vyhlad na ropu v priebehu 2010: narast tazobnych kapacit v poslednom obdobi (ceny boli vysoko), nizka spotreba, pokles smerom ku 40 USD/barel. Pravdepodobne vsak zostaneme v pasme 60-80 USD/barel v priebehu 2010. Toto su urovne, ktore vyhovuju aj OPEC-u.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je neutralny. Vidime konsolidaciu medzi 71.30 a 72.15 USD/barel.

- Ceny psenice v 2009 poklesli. Zaznamenali sme narast, ktory by mohol byt odpovedat na pokles z minuleho roka a nedavny vypredaj komodit. Celkovo su zasoby psenice vysoke, dopyt je relativne nizky (nie je podporeny rozvijajucimi sa trhmi) a vyrobou etanolu ako je to v pripade kukurice. 550 centov/bushel v priebehu 2010.

- Long kukurica/short psenica. Cena kukurica 460, psenica 550 centov/bushel v 2010.

Sumit EU, ktory sa bude konat 11.02.2010 by mohol vniest viac svetla na riesenie/neriesenie rozpoctovych problemov Grecka.

- Momentalne nevidiet ziadnu vyznamnu aktivitu na EURUSD trhu. Caka sa na vysledky sumitu alebo spravy spojene s riesenim problemov.

- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne pozitivny. Odporucame nakup po prelomeni urovne 1.3720 s cielom pri 1.3850 EURUSD. Stop pod 1.3640. Alternativny vyvoj: obchodovanie v pasme 1.3640-1.3710

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

A quiet Asian session showed us little by way of any major developments or price action. It was instead various pieces of sound bites/comments and general jaw boning that was seen to be market moving setting up the market for today’s European session. Equities were lower and sold off overnight with the Dow dipping and staying below the psychologically important 10,000 level.
The comments and developments overnight that I refer to include some of the following;

• Joseph Stiglitz commenting that Europe should teach speculators a lesson in the face of record short EUR positions
• The Fed’s Bullard commenting about possible exit strategies and general gradual changes to the cash rate
• RBA governor Stevens warning that low rates for too long will spur bubbles

Chief amongst that was the fact that Trichet was seen to be leaving Sydney (RBA’s 50th birthday) early to be back here for the European Council meeting on Thursday heightening speculation that there is something more serious in the air regarding their treatment of Greece and the other beleaguered economies….
Read into that what you will but we walk in this morning to see the EURUSD better bid having cleaned out stops sitting in the 1.3715/20 area and we trade to 1.3743 in a short covering squeeze despite good offers lined up all the way into 1.3750. My personal feeling on this is that we see the remaining offers getting paid and we take out the more formidable stops above 1.3750 taking us in all likelihood towards the 1.3800 handle with good offers then sitting ahead of the 1.3830 level.

On the other majors it’s pretty much business as usual in the sense that risk is creeping slightly back in the market, but in my view this is simply a case of the market taking a breath before continuing on its merry way lower. I say look to fade rallies today and don’t get caught up in the euphoria (however temporary it might be).

Data wise we have little of serious note, save for UK trade balance data which if anything might see the Cable rally in smalls ahead of the number to then only be sold off afterwards.

I remain sidelined from the market and look to see how the next few days develop.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

С Уважением | Yours Sincerely | Med venlig hilsen

Ken Veksler - Senior Manager | Trading and Advisory
Saxo Bank A/S | Philip Heymans Alle 15 | DK-2900 Hellerup
Phone: +45 39 77 40 00 | EE group number: +45 39 77 65 32 | Direct phone: +45 39 77 40 54
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08 února 2010

8/2 Ekonomický komentár "Kúp, predaj, podrž"

Pripravil Martin Kadlec, Senior Sales Trader, Saxo Bank

AKCIOVE TRHY- Americke akcie ukoncili vcerajsie obchodovanie v ciernych cislach aj napriek vyraznemu prepadu. Podarilo sa im vsak nakoniec ukoncit v pluse. Prepad bol sposobeny neistotou spojenou s riesenim situacie okolo Grecka zo strany EU a spravami z Portugalska, kde bol schvaleny zakon, ktory umoznuje samospravam zvysovat deficity.

- Podobne k tomu neprispeli ani udaje o dalsom zruseni 20 000 pracovnych miest v USA aj ked nezamestnatnost poklesla na 9.7%.

- Trhy sa pohli vyssie na zaklade spekulacii, ze EU nakoniec najde riesenie ako vyriesit rozpoctove problemy Grecka a Spanielska. Taktiez trhy povzbudila sprava o mensom poklese spotrebitelskych uverov v USA. To viedlo k uzatvaraniu kratkych pozicii, kedze mnohy investori nechceli ostat short cez vikend pred zaciatkom buduceho tyzdna.

- Akcie spolocnosti Airgas Inc. vzrastli potom co Air Products & Chemicals Inc. (najvacsi svetovy producent vodika) oznamila, ze sa s 5.1 mld. USD ponukou na prevzatie Airgas Inc. obrati priamo na akcionarov tejto spolocnsoti ako nasledok dvojnasobneho odmietnutia ponuky na vytvorenie najvacsej US spolocnosti v oblasti vyroby priemyselnych plynov. Air Products & Chemicals Inc. sa po zverejneni tychto sprav prepadla.

- Vysledky stretnutia G7 v Kanade: vlady ponechaju podporne opatrenia aj napriek rastucej neistote invetorov spojenej s rastucimi deficitmi, EU potvrdila ze sa zaobera situaciou okolo Grecka a ostatnych problemovych krajin s potrebnou vaznostou, nepriamo vyzvali krajiny s pevnymi vymennymi kurzami na ich uvolnenie, financne institucie by mali znasat naklady spojene s financou krizou, suhlasili s odpustenim dlhov Haiti.

- Celkovo mame negativny vyhlad na rizikove aktiva a odporucame predaje po narastoch.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre DAX je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po narastoch ku 5472 s cielom na 5430. Stop nad 5490.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre FTSE je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po narastoch ku 5129 s cielom na 5100. Stop nad 5145.

- Vyhlad na dnesny den pre S&P500 je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po narastoch ku 1064 s cielom na 1055. Stop nad 1067.

- Dnesne odporucanie na nakup (Technicke indikatory): ACS, Portugal Telecom,
BAE Systems, Bunzl.

- Dnesne odporucanie na predaj (Technicke indikatory): Ahold, Akzo Nobel, Allianz, Anheuser-Busch I., ASML Holding, Banco De Sabadel., Banco Popular Es., Banco Santander, BBVA, 3I Group, Amec, Associated Briti., AstraZeneca, Aviva, BAT, BT Group, Burberry Group, Cable & Wireless, Capita Group.

Zlato zaznamenalo obrovsky vypredaj po tom ako USD zacal vyrazne posilnovat. Postupne sa mu podarilo vymazat cast strat pocas obchodovania po uzavreti hlavnych trhov.

- Vyvoj cien zlata bude aj v najblizsom obdobi ovplyvnovany vyvojom USD. Plati, ze ked investori vidia oslabovanie USD, tak sa pozeraju viac na komodity ako urcitu ochranu pred slabnucim dolarom a ako istotu v case neistoty.

- Dnesny vyhlad na zlato je neutralny. Pravdepodobne sa bude obchodovat v pasme 1060-1070 USD/uncu. V pripade prelomenia pasma smerom dolu, doporucujeme predaj pre znovuostovanie urovne 1050 USD/uncu. Stop nad 1076.

Dnesny vyhlad na striebro je mierne negativny. Doporucujeme predaje po zhodnoteni ku 15.15 pre znovuotestovanim urovne 14.65 USD/uncu. Stop nad 15.37.

Ropa podobne ako aj ostatne komodity vyrazne oslabila pocas piatkoveho obchodovania. Rope sa podarilo prelomit vyznamnu podpornu uroven 72.40 USD/barel a posuvala sa nizsie.

- Pre jej dalsi vyvoj bude kriticke ako sa bude darit USD. V pripade dalsieho poklesu po 67.45 by sme mohli byt svedkami technickych predajov.

- Takisto ani predpokladany narast zasob ropy by nemal pozitivne vplyvat na ceny.

- Dnesny vyhlad na ropu je neutralny. Vidime konsolidaciu medzi 71.30 a 72.20 USD/barel po piatkovom vyraznom prepade.

Platina podobne ako paladium sa pouzivaju v automobilovom priemysle. Jej ceny ako aj ceny ostatnych komodit su ovplyvnene vyvojom hodnoty USD, zaujmom investorov o rizikovejsie aktiva ako aj dopytom zo strany priemyslu.

- Po nedavnom vypredaji na komoditnych trhoch sa ceny platiny prepadli viac ako zlata, co by mohlo predstavovat lepsiu investicnu prilezitost v pripade pozitivnych sprav najma z automobiloveho priemyslu.

Na trhu je pritomne velke mozstvo kratkych pozicii zo strany investorov ako vysledok situacie okolo rozpoctovych problemov niektorych krajin Eurozony co vytvara velky tlak na EUR.

- Co tak sa zamysliet nad situaciou okolo Grecka, Portugalska, Spanielska, Talianska a Irska ako o urcitom modelovom scenari pre Velku Britaniu a USA? MMF zverejnil udaje o statnom dlhu krajin G20 vo vyske 118% HDP v 2014, co je narast z urovne 80% pred krizou.

- Tento vyhlad nezostane nepovsimnuty ratingovymi agenturami a je pravdepodobne, ze dojde k znizovaniu ratingov jednotlivych krajin, co bude viest ku vacsim rizikovym prirazkam na dlhopisoch a ich drahsiemu financovaniu. Mozu si krajiny Eurozony, Velka Britania, USA dovolit drahsie financovanie svojich deficitov? Co tak Japonsko so statnym dlhom predstavujucim takmer dvojnasobok velkosti ekonomiky?

- Dnesny vyhlad na EURUSD je mierne negativny. Odporucame predaje po zhodnoteni smerom ku 1.3670 s cielom pri 1.3570 EURUSD. Stop nad 1.3715.

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

Well, the G7 had their meeting over the weekend and traders have had a chance to breathe. Neither of which will likely give the market any respite this week. Everything still looks heavy in the land of risk and equity markets and in my mind FX flows will now look to mirror that sentiment. And yes I hear what you’re all thinking… Everything has already come so far, surely now this is the time/opportunity to get on the back of retracements and ride the market on its corrective move…

In short these are the moves that the retail sector tries to ride and invariably gets stung on. What I mean is that I don’t think last week’s move is over by any stretch of the imagination and from here any corrections are likely only to be suckers rallies before we resume. All this is likely to happen over the first 2 days of this week and then we resume the original move. My firm advice for the time being is to stay out of the market and save your pennies.

I don’t really have a clean view at the moment and if revert to the gun to the head scenario (held at gunpoint and asked to comment) then I would look at the following;

EURUSD: Has a short squeeze to 1.3730, takes out some weak stops just above and rallies another 20/30 pips before coming lower again.
GBPUSD: Read above, but only the levels change, 1.5650/5730 holds the upside on the day while all the risk is to the downside with eyes now set on 1.5500 in the coming days
USDJPY: 89.70 marks intermediate resistance from here and while risk aversion is the plate de’ jour the downside is also at play while the greenback and the JPY fight for bragging rights as to which is the safest haven.
AUDUSD: I sell it, sell it, sell it…. Look to 0.8770 to cap any upside while the intermediate target remains 0.8470.

That’s all I have today and until such time as I see anything fresh from here… The data/event risk today is practically non existent so no guide there either, I say settle in and wait for the seppo’s to start
their session later this afternoon.

Hardly inspiring I know, but what do you expect in this market.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.