09 března 2010

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

I truly wish I had something informative for you today but it seems like Groundhog day is upon us once again. Little overnight other than a slight reaffirmation of risk appetite in the form of better performing Asian equity indices, but irrespective of this the Greenback held onto its gains well and now we look to the equity market to see whether this move can really extend to the 1150 mark on the S&P. On the bus home last night I was surprised to see the Cable fall out of bed and pundits this morning are calling the worse RICS data as the driver for this… rubbish. This thing moved of its own accord about 6 hours shy of the data and was printing fresh lows just shy of the release. As suggested over the last few days this is likely to be a dead cat bounce and moves into the 1.5200 zone should be seen as opportunities to sell once again.

The EURUSD is frustratingly boring at the moment and the range persists with risks to the downside ever present. I am a seller on the day into 1.3700/30 and look to take it back around the 1.3550/70 area. With regard the USDCAD, those with patience will look to build strategic longs at present levels with a break above 1.3080 confirmation of further upside. However those that just want a bottom drawer trade and little to worry about should look at buying 2 week upside in the cross and (for the penny pinchers out there) selling some downside in the 1.0250 strike zone to finance it. 1.0400 2 week calls currently run at around the 40pip mark so all in all not a bad deal.

On the USDJPY, sell rallies is the call and that my friends is not going to change for the medium term. And of course my AUDNZD, well you’ve all got screens and can see where this thing is going…. Sideways for the moment with a hint of downward correction imminent. The market will now wait for Thursday night where we have AUD unemployment and the RBNZ decision….

On the data front today is a equally light as yesterday was with the exception of some UK trade data out this morning.

Good luck staying awake out there today.

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

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