25 února 2010

Ken Veksler's Market Commentary

Good morning,

Where there’s smoke there’s fire and where there’s fire there’s DAMAGE!
Every European newspaper has got their front page plastered with news of the Greek tragedy and quite frankly the Greek’s haven’t helped themselves one little bit with the Greek finance minister calling the Germans everything but “Nazi’s”, although I think he might well have muttered that under his breath also. Biting the hand that feeds you much?

Any way you look at it spells bad news for the Euro zone and clearly the currency as a result. Adding further woes was another article nominating Spain as the next battle ground for growing debt and potential bail out problems…. It just isn’t getting any better for them right now. What all this means of course is that the DXY is now approaching previous highs and doesn’t look anything like abating that growth in the near future. It’s practically a case of no matter what Bernanke and his mates have to say, this greenback is going higher. Save another disaster of 9/11 proportions chances are you need to be holding the big dollar right now. The only other currency that might hold a challenge to the USD as safe haven flow destination is the JPY, which in large part thanks to the EURJPY hitting significant new lows is looking remarkably strong at the moment. Cross JPY is the place to be right now and if you’re prepared to wear some volatility then EURJPY is definitely the place. I say buy some options… Go on put your hand in your pocket and buy an option…. See what it feels like to make some money for a change in an unforgiving market.

The Cable is also being punished at present trading (at print) to new 9 month lows having taken out the 1.5380 level and printing as low as 1.5310 this morning. Rallies need to be sold and sold heavily.
On the EURUSD I like a move to 1.3530/50 to begin selling on the day and continue in that vein all the way up to 1.3630/50 should you see it that high (good luck).

Elsewhere overnight data out of both Australia and New Zealand was seen to be positive for the respective currencies but in the end only adds further credence to my short AUDNZD position which at present is developing nicely. Having printed a high of 1.2923 overnight we’ve seen a good retracement lower and I am all but filled for the entire size of the position.

On the day we have data out in Euro zone in the form of Consumer and Business confidence and further out in the US we have Durable goods orders, Jobless claims numbers and the House price index all later this afternoon. I see this data as nothing other than USD supportive for now and choose to play accordingly.

For those that didn’t get my rather thinly veiled attempt at pushing options, here it is again in terms everyone should understand;

BUY OPTIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Best regards,

Ken Veksler.

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