Good morning,
Well, the G7 had their meeting over the weekend and traders have had a chance to breathe. Neither of which will likely give the market any respite this week. Everything still looks heavy in the land of risk and equity markets and in my mind FX flows will now look to mirror that sentiment. And yes I hear what you’re all thinking… Everything has already come so far, surely now this is the time/opportunity to get on the back of retracements and ride the market on its corrective move…
In short these are the moves that the retail sector tries to ride and invariably gets stung on. What I mean is that I don’t think last week’s move is over by any stretch of the imagination and from here any corrections are likely only to be suckers rallies before we resume. All this is likely to happen over the first 2 days of this week and then we resume the original move. My firm advice for the time being is to stay out of the market and save your pennies.
I don’t really have a clean view at the moment and if revert to the gun to the head scenario (held at gunpoint and asked to comment) then I would look at the following;
EURUSD: Has a short squeeze to 1.3730, takes out some weak stops just above and rallies another 20/30 pips before coming lower again.
GBPUSD: Read above, but only the levels change, 1.5650/5730 holds the upside on the day while all the risk is to the downside with eyes now set on 1.5500 in the coming days
USDJPY: 89.70 marks intermediate resistance from here and while risk aversion is the plate de’ jour the downside is also at play while the greenback and the JPY fight for bragging rights as to which is the safest haven.
AUDUSD: I sell it, sell it, sell it…. Look to 0.8770 to cap any upside while the intermediate target remains 0.8470.
That’s all I have today and until such time as I see anything fresh from here… The data/event risk today is practically non existent so no guide there either, I say settle in and wait for the seppo’s to start
their session later this afternoon.
Hardly inspiring I know, but what do you expect in this market.
Best regards,
Ken Veksler.
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