15 prosince 2009

15/12 Trader's Diary

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank

Tight ranges prevail overnight as the theme of tighter volume/liquidity continues and if anything gathers momentum. Everything was confined overnight to practically 40/50 point ranges and the only pairs showing any signs of life were the antipodeans with the AUD touched by RBA minutes highlighting the possibility of a pause in the hike cycle and the CAD reacting in small to the Exxon XTO deal done yesterday with oil moving a little as well.

Elsewhere it was all quiet on the western front and only this morning we walk in to see the EUR, Cable and a few others squeeze ahead of a day jammed with data (mainly out of the US).

On the day look for 1.4550 to hold the downside in EURUSD and the squeeze we’re currently experiencing could well be related to the ZEW data first off the rank this morning. Following this we have a raft of US data as well as the beginning of the 2 day FOMC meeting.

In all fairness I expect the recent recovery in the greenback to continue if not with the same pace as it has thus far. What does this mean for the majors over the coming days? Well in simple terms it means testing the bottom end of recent ranges and the Cable of all pairs to be feeling the pressure the most. I look for 1.6150 to be tested much sooner than most anticipate.

The trade of the day yesterday was to play the range in the USDCAD and it paid well, will it again today? Perhaps is the short answer, but in the meantime I suggest looking at scaling into shorts around the 1.0650/80 levels and look to place stops above 1.0730 with targets to the downside being 1.0570 and below.

To all of you there I say safe helmet wearing and good luck.

0 komentářů: