14 prosince 2009

14/12 Daily market commentary

Prepared by Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank

Apologies for the delay in writing this but as the last full trading week of the year begins so too does my yearning for it to be over…

It’s been a long year and no doubt much the same for many of you. The usual rules apply this week as they have for many year ends in recent times and that is thin liquidity on the back of lower volumes and subsequently increased volatility with small orders being enough to really shift this market. So where does that leave the view for the week….

Put your helmets on folks it’s going to be boring for the most part, whippy in brief periods and when it does actually move most of all ugly. There will be a series of data/event risks that might light some fireworks which include;

• RBA meeting minutes
• UK CPI and Unemployment
• US PPI
• US and Euro Zone CPI
• FOMC

None of the above should hold any real surprises in store for the market, but there is the ever slim chance that the FOMC hints not at a tightening, but more so simply changes the tone of the language used. Looking to perhaps for the first time in months not use the phrase “for an extended period of time”. Clearly this will give the greenback some more impetus on its recent road to small recovery, but in all likelihood I wouldn’t hold my breath.

So rather than boring you with ranting on about what may or may not happen this week on the data front, I will instead turn straight to the major pairs:

EURUSD: As noted in my daily comment on Friday this thing is range bound and the risk remains to the downside. I would be a seller of rallies all the way into 1.4750 and 1.4800 looking for a final (although improbable) move into 1.4500.

GBPUSD: Cable remains a screaming sell and the cross will find it tough to breach the 1.6500 zone. I sell into rallies and look for potentially sub 1.6100 this week although conservatively 1.6180 should hold the downside.

USDJPY: As per my comments last week, I too am bearish this cross and think that rallies need to be faded. Look for 90.30/80 to cap the up side and more sideways action around the 88 base.

AUDUSD: Equally boring and also sideways… Sound familiar? Fade rallies!

USDCAD: Range 1.0750 to 1.0430. Trade it.


Once more I offer apologies for the delay and rather informal content, but as you can no doubt tell by my tone, it’s deathly quiet out there.

This will be the last weekly outlook for 2009 and shall return in January of the new year, until then I will continue with the daily comments until next week.

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