10 prosince 2009

10/12 Daily Comment

Ken Veksler, Senior Manager, Trading & Advisory, Saxo Bank

Slightly livelier night last night starting with the afternoon of the US session in which we saw (truthfully not entirely sure why) the greenback come in quite offered for all of 15 minutes and the majors had a small rally higher on the back of this. This was however, short-lived and subsequently the EUR and Cable settled back into familiar ranges.

More interest was held by the moves in the NZD and AUD which for their very own reasons had interesting nights. Starting with the RBNZ which despite leaving rates unchanged (as expected) did have a far more hawkish statement which made it fairly clear that they were going to be moving the tightening bias to sometime in Q2 of next year rather than the previously thought far end of the curve.

This immediately gave the Kiwi a bid tone and we shot strongly higher on the back of it, sending my AUDNZD trade into profit (more on that later). A few hours later we had the employment numbers out of Australia and these were indeed significantly better than expected adding over 100k of new full time jobs and sending the official rate to 5.7% (5.8% exp).

Clearly this also gave the AUD quite a bid tone, but at least in my eyes the cross really failed to make the most of it and right now I still feel that we are indeed in a range on the cross.

With regard my AUDNZD trade I remain short only a small portion of the original trade size and look for 1.2470/50 now for further profit taking.

On the day data wise we have the SNB with official rates, clearly no move but there is the risk that they discuss the notion of removing the extraordinary monetary policy they have been instigating and the CHF moves on the back it. However the immediate risk is that this move strengthens the currency and we see the USDCHF and EURCHF mainly take a short dive….

Otherwise BoE out today and after yesterdays PBR no surprise are left of the table really, they’re in the toilet and those that weren’t sure should be by now. If anything the risk is they raise the QE measures and the Cable sinks even further taking out intermediate support at 1.6170 and taking us lower into the 1.6050 zone.

No comment on the EURUSD today…. It still looks heavy and the market wants to see 1.4620 at least or at least close enough to it.

Good luck out there today…. It’s getting ugly as the festive season and all that goes with it starts to really gain momentum.

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